Does the medical college admission test predict clinical reasoning skills? A longitudinal study employing the Medical Council of Canada clinical reasoning examination.

BACKGROUND To investigate the predictive validity of the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) for clinical reasoning skills upon completion of medical school. METHOD A total of 597 students (295 males, 49.4%; 302 females, 50.6%) participated from 1991 to 1999. Stepwise multiple regressions of the MCAT and premedical school GPA (independent variables) on the Part 1(declarative knowledge) and Part 2 (clinical reasoning) of the Medical Council of Canada Examinations (dependent variables) were employed. RESULTS For Part 1, the multiple regression revealed that three predictors (verbal reasoning, biological sciences, GPA) accounted for 23.3% of the variance, and for Part 2, two predictors (verbal reasoning, GPA) accounted for 11.2%. CONCLUSION There is both convergent and divergent evidence for the predictive validity of the MCAT for clinical reasoning.